By Celestine Okereke | A feature of revenue distribution in Nigeria in the past few decades is that some federal agencies receive a percentage of the revenues they collect on behalf of the Federation.

By Ejiro Joyce Otive-Igbuzor | Disability inclusion is vital for fostering equality and sustainable development. The enactment of the Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act (2019), the establishment of the National Commission for Persons with Disabilities (NCPWD), and the notable (though inadequate) appointments of persons with disabilities (PWDs) to leadership roles at the national level and in a few states signify unprecedented attention to inclusion of PWDs in Nigeria.

By Akinyemi Akinyugha | In the second week of September 2022, massive flooding was reported in Nigeria arising from an overflow of the River Benue, affecting states on the river path from the North East to the South East and the Niger Delta parts of the country. The flooding got worse in October and may stretch into November. Initially, discharge of excess water from the upstream Lagdo Dam in Cameroon was identified as the cause of the flooding. However, the Honourable Minister of Water Resources, Engineer Suleiman Adamu, later clarified that the flooding occurred as a result of torrential rainfall overwhelming the River Benue and its tributaries.

The number of people affected by the flood is still being documented. As at the last count, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) reported that 2,504,095 persons are affected by the flood, with at least 500 people declared dead.¹

Enough evidence abounds that a significant portion of Nigeria is flood-prone. Though the tally is not fully in, the flooding this year will rank among the worst in Nigeria’s history, probably on the same scale with the 2012 episode. Unfortunately, this won’t be the last and future occurrences may be worse, given changing weather patterns. Finding proactive and sustainable solutions, rather than episodic and reactive responses, to Nigeria’s perennial flooding challenge is thus an urgent imperative.

 How does flooding occur?

The glossary of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC SREX) defines a flood as “the overflowing of the normal confines of a stream or other body of water, or the accumulation of water over areas that are not normally submerged.”²

Floods occur when excess water inundates a particular watershed. As the name implies, a watershed is an entire area of land that “sheds” or drains water into a specific waterbody. Most river system are dendritic, with several streams connected as funnels to recharge water into the river. Watersheds vary in size and characteristics: they can be small or large.

When intense rain falls over a small watershed, particularly in urban areas where there are many concrete and other impervious structures, flash flood occurs. Its effect is usually exacerbated when there are poorly maintained, clogged drainages and channels.

However, in large watersheds such as River Benue, flooding occurs in two major ways. First, it occurs when significant water is discharged from an upstream dam e.g., Lagdo Dam in Cameroon. The second is the more frequent reason: flooding arises when torrential rainfall occurs in the highland areas and tributaries serving the river. The resultant effect is the inundation of the river channel and its adjoining communities. A demonstration of the scale of flooding that occurred this year is shown in the satellite image below which compares two satellite images of upstream section of River Benue in Numan, Adamawa State in January and September 2022.The images show a 2.5-times increase in the width of the river channel as a result of flooding.

A section of Benue River at Numan, Adamawa in January 2022 (about 400m wide)

Same section of Benue River at Numan in September 2002 (1020m wide)

To solve the perennial flooding crisis, Nigeria needs a big and bold visionary programme like the Netherland’s Delta Works and River Room programmes

In 1953, the Netherlands was flooded by water from the North Sea, leading to the inundation of approximately 9% of farmlands and causing 8,361 fatalities. In response, the Netherlands Government launched a massive flood protection programme, the Delta Works, whose main objectives were to protect the Netherlands from high water, ensure sufficient supply of freshwater and make the country climate-proof. The project comprised 13 dams as well as 10,250 miles of dikes, levees and barriers to protect areas within and around the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt from flood. This ambitious $5bn works, which lasted for 24 years, ensured that Holland, despite being a low-lying country, is extensively protected from flood and has continual supply of drinking and irrigation water. The risk of flooding was reduced from the typical one in 100 years to one in 4,000 years³.

Nigeria needs its own version of the Delta Works and River Room programmes and should set out a big and bold vision for a climate-smart integrated water resources management, which seeks to turn this environmental disaster into a blessing.

Currently, the main agencies empowered by law to act on flood control and watershed management at the federal level are the River Basin Development Authorities (RBDAs). However, these RBDAs appear to focus on water resources management from the prism of agricultural utility of water and have largely played a bit-part role in flood management.  Other relevant entities of government such as NEMA (under the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, and Social Development),the Nigeria Hydrological Service Agency, and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency mainly carry out predictive and reactive activities.

To galvanise action, we need a special Presidential Committee for National Flood Risk Management, which shall draw membership from indigenous and global water resources and environmental management experts, with active support of all the ministries, departments and agencies relevant to flood risk management. The committee’s mandate will be to develop a comprehensive national flood risk assessment and management programme, which takes into cognisance predicted climate change scenarios for the country. The committee will develop specific recommendations on which combinations of natural and built flood management interventions are best suited for the major watersheds/river basins and provide a cost estimate as well as strategic execution plan for these interventions. Backing the committee’s recommendations with appropriate legislations and guaranteed funding would ensure sustainability of the proposed interventions over the febrile and sometimes unstable political and budget circles of Nigeria.

Already, in October 2022 the Federal Government has approved a National Emergency Flood Preparedness and Response Plans to mitigate and reduce the impact of flood but it is unclear if this plan contains a comprehensive flood risk assessment and management plan for the country.

The solution to the flooding crises can be found in a combination of grey and green infrastructure

Finally, in developing the interventions, we must resist the notion that we can dam away all the “damned” flood waters, based on the philosophy that only concrete and steel infrastructure – dams, levees, dykes, barriers, etc. – can effectively deliver flood risk management. A combination of grey and green infrastructure will be required to deliver sustainable, climate-proof outcomes, considering the diverse ecosystem in Nigeria.

As many have suggested, the Dadin Hausa Dam, conceptualised in the late 1970s as the recipient dam for Cameroon’s Lagdo Dam, may have mitigated the flooding experienced in these communities. While this might be true to some extent, the solutions to perennial flooding goes beyond concrete structures. In the face of threats arising from climate change, nature-based solutions or natural flood management are the most sustainable alternative due to the potential ecosystem benefits they deliver over concrete and steel structural solutions.

Water, they say, will always find its level; hence, at the minimum, it is important that natural flood plains be restored to give enough room for rivers to flow before considering the introduction of dams. This will reduce downstream river flow and inundation of low-lying communities. In addition to dredging rivers where necessary, secondary channels and lakes can also be created to divert some water off the flood paths. Watershed-based forest regeneration, particularly around hillsides, should be carried out to slow down runoff from the hills into the rivers.

At the sub-national level, state and local governments need to be more committed to climate-smart land use planning and development. A revolution in our urban development philosophy and practice to allow for ecosystem-friendly development is long overdue to accelerate mitigation of the impact of extreme weather events, predicted to happen over the next few years.

Since floods occur when excess water flows above a watershed’s drainage capacity, urban development that slows down, soaks and spreads flood waters should be encouraged. This can be achieved by encouraging the use of rain gardens and vegetation over concrete pavements in private residences. Housing developers in flood prone areas should also be made to demonstrate flood-resilient aspects of their designs before permits are issued.

Sub-national governments should prioritise restoration of wetlands whilst banning any development on them while urban greening initiatives should be encouraged. Basic flood management measures including the regular clearance and maintenance of channels and drainages should also be carried out.

More ambitious countries like China have created several sponge cities within their highly urbanised city-clusters: sponge cities are large green spaces(such as trees, gardens and parks) within main cities, acting like a sponge to soak flood water and gently releasing the water into the environment. An example of a similar space in Nigeria is the Lekki Conservation Centre, Lagos. More of such green spaces should be created in areas prone to flooding.

Whatever solutions would be adopted, there is an urgent need to act decisively to institute a robust, risk-based flood management system in Nigeria. The cost of doing otherwise is better imagined than experienced; hence, the time to act is now.

Dr. Akinyemi Akinyugha is the Ekiti State Project Coordinator for the Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project (NEWMAP). He holds a PhD in Engineering (Environmental/Geo-Technical) from the University of Cambridge, UK.

Footnotes

[1]https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/10/17/nema-2-5-million-persons-affected-by-flooding/

[2] IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564

^[3]Delta Works Flood Protection, Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt Delta, Netherlands. Accessed online: https://www.water-technology.net/projects/delta-works-flood-netherlands/

By Tayo Agunbiade | The results of the recently-held general election have once again confirmed the continued under-representation and marginalisation of women in politics and governance in Nigeria. Women constitute 49.3%of Nigeria’s total population, but only manage to secure 4.69% of the executive and legislative positions on offer at the federal and state levels in the elections held between February and March this year. The country’s highest law-making and decision-making bodies are thus guaranteed to remain excessively male-dominated for another four years. Deliberate policy and other steps must be taken to address this imbalance in the immediate and in the medium to long terms.

At the federal and state levels, Nigeria has a total of 1,534 electable positions. This is broken down as follows: two President and Vice President; 72 state governors and deputy governors; 469 federal legislators (made up of 109 senators and 360 members of the House of Representatives); and 991 members of the states’ Houses of Assembly. Out of these, women won only 72 positions in the 2023 general election. This amounts to a paltry 4.69% of the total executive and legislative positions on offer in the 7^th electoral cycle in the 4^th Republic, which commenced in 1999.

Of the 72 women elected in 2023, seven are deputy governors while the remaining 65 are federal and state legislators. On the bright side, there is a marginal increase over the performance of women in the 2019 electoral cycle when only 66 women were elected in all, with only four being deputy governors. This shows that overall female representation improved by 9.09% while the number of deputy governors increased by 75%. Also, there are some states, like Kwara, where female legislators in the state parliament shot up by 500%. However, these marginal gains are diluted by reversals at the federal parliament and maintenance of the gender status quo among the president, the vice president and state governors.

Great Expectations, Grim Results

There was an expectation that women would fare better in the 2023 electoral cycle. There has been a consistent increase in women’s interest and participation in Nigeria’s political and electoral fields. This awareness has also spilled over to civil society and over the years there has been high-level advocacy for more female representation in political and electoral leadership. So, what went wrong for the Nigeria’s female candidates?

For the presidential race, there was a drop in the number of female candidates seeking to occupy Aso Rock.  This time around there was only one candidate namely: Ms Chichi Ojei of the Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM).  This was a reduction from six women who featured on the ballot paper as presidential candidates in the 2019 election.  The reason for this is due tothe fact that in 2019, there were 91 political parties, and many of them, unlike the older parties,welcomed women to contest in the presidential election on their platforms.  To date, none of the older and main political parties have presented a woman candidate for the top posts of president and vice-president.

With the exception of Adamawa State, the male-centric culture adopted by most of the main parties on electable executive positions was replicated in the candidacy for the gubernatorial race. History was made in the state when for the first time a woman-Senator Aisha Dahiru, popularly known as Binani- was selected to run on the platform of aruling national party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).Indeed, it must be stated that this is the second time APC would select a woman as its gubernatorial candidatein North-East geo-political zone. In 2015, late Senator Aisha Jummai Al-Hassan was the party’s gubernatorial candidate in Taraba State.

There were also a handful of women as governorship candidates on the platforms of relatively smaller parties such as Binta Umar of the Action Alliance from Jigawa State; Hajiya Fatima Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Borno State; Beatrice Itubor of the Labour Party (LP) in Rivers State; and Khadijah Iya Abdullahi of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) in Niger State. This too is commendable. But regardless of this and by all standards, this electoral journey has proved to be a disappointment for women in Nigeria.

As is known, legislative institutions are at the heart of a democracy and globally there is vigorous consciousness about the importance of women’s agency and voices in law-making.  Nigerian women are part of the groundswell of global advocacy for participation, representation and inclusion in national and state parliaments.

The number of women who contested for seats in the federal legislature was 380 (8.9%), out of a total of 4,223 candidates. A closer look at the breakdown of the candidates to the upper and lower chambers shows the following: Of the 1,101 candidates to the Senate, 92 were women; while there were 288 women of a total of 3,122 candidates for the House of Representatives.  Only three of 92 women candidates won seats to the 109-seat Senate and 14 out of 288 to the 360-member House of Representatives. This means a total of 17 women will occupy seats in the 469-member National Assembly.

It is interesting to note that about 96% of the female contestants for the federal parliament did not win. This has been the trend. In 2019, 95.5 % of the contestants to the National Assembly suffered electoral losses, while in 2015, 94% of female candidates failed to win seats. This tells us the magnitude of defeat being experienced by women during the past few election cycles.

The critical issue at the other end of the spectrum is the drop in the number of seats occupied by women in the National Assembly. For the 10^th National Assembly, female representation stands at 3.6%. In 2019, there were 21 women legislators (4.5%) and 28 (6%) in 2015. The data also points to the fact that women’s interests, voices and perspectives across the country will continue to be excluded and marginalised in the making of national legislation and the constitution review exercises.

One of the consequences of under-representation is the low success rate of women-related legislations. It will be recalled that the Gender and Equitable Opportunities Bill sponsored by Senator Biodun Olujimi is yet to pass through legislative hurdles since it was first presented in 2015. It was voted down based on reasons which include religion and culture as stated by some male legislators.

In 2021, Hon. Nkeiruka Onyejeocha alongside 85 other legislators in the House of Representatives sponsored an amendment to the 1999 Constitution to create additional 111 seats which will be exclusively for women in the National Assembly. Although the bill passed its second reading, but overtime, it failed to garner the required support.

The most recent instance of how low representation negatively impacts women-related legislations occurred on 8^thMarch 2022, when five Gender Bills which were drafted to amongst other things increase inclusion and representation of women in governance, were roundly rejected during the constitution alteration exercise. The bills address women’s rights, indigeneship, citizenship and affirmative action in appointments, as well as the executive committees of political parties and reserved seats for women in national and state assemblies. Yet there was a concerted effort on the part of several male lawmakers to see that none of these bills see the light of day. This was despite the fact that all 21 women legislators were members of the Constitution Review Committees set up by each chamber of the National Assembly.

Table 1 below shows the gender landscape of Nigeria’s federal legislature from 2015 to 2023 and highlights the extent of male domination of this national deliberative institution.

Table 1: Gender Landscape of 469-Seat National Assembly (2015-2023)

The outcome of the electoral race at the state level was no different.Of the 10, 231 contestants to the State Houses of Assembly, only 1,019 (9.9%) were women of which only 48 won seats to the 991-member State legislature. This indicates a success rate of a paltry 4.71% for female candidates at the state level. Besides the data revealing a 95.28% electoral loss at this level for women candidates, it also shows that there is only a negligible increase of seats in comparison with 2019.   Women gained only seven seats more than the 41 won in 2019, to record a slight increment of 4.1 % to 4.7 %.

Table 2 below shows the gender landscape of Nigeria’s state legislature from 2015 to 2023 and also highlights the extent of male domination at the state level.

 Table 2: Gender Landscape of 991 State Houses of Assembly (2015-2023)

As indicated in Table 2, the overall landscape in the state parliaments is similar to that which prevails at the national level, even though this legislature is generally regarded as being closer to the grassroots communities.

Mixed Results at State Level

Notwithstanding the deepening gender gap in the legislative arm of government, some history has also been recorded at the sub-national level which must be hailed. For example, worthy of note is the fact that for the first time, the elections have produced a handful of women to the Houses of Assembly in the northern states of Kwara, Taraba and Kogi.

Indeed, Kwara State in North-Central Nigeria has for the first time recorded five women in its 24-seat Assembly. This is the second highest number of women, after Ekiti State in South-West Nigeria which has six out of 26 members. Against the backdrop of women’s share in the number of seats in past, these are milestones.

Marginal increases occurred in several states. For example, Ondo State went from one to three female lawmakers; Kaduna and Plateau both went from one to two; and Edo and Nasarawa went from zero to one each. Akwa Ibom went from two to four female lawmakers; while others like Bayelsa and Delta maintain their status quo of two female legislators each.

States such as Imo, Gombe, Niger and Rivers where previously there were a handful of female state legislators, are now left with none. Others like Cross River, Ebonyi, Enugu and Ogun saw a slight drop in their previous numbers. For example, Cross River went down from four women to one; Ebonyi from three to two women, and Ogun from four women to two.

Table 3 below provides the data of women in the State Houses of Assembly for 2019 and 2023.

Table 3: Female Representation in State Houses of Assembly (2019-2023)

Source: Dailytrust.com

Of the thirty-six states, fifteen states have no female representation in their Houses of Assembly for the in-coming legislative tenure. The states with zero female legislators in their houses of assembly are: Abia, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, Katsina, Niger, Osun, Rivers, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. In the out-going tenure of 2019-2023, a similar number of states do not have female representation. They are: Abia, Bauchi, Borno, Edo, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.

Undoubtedly, there is a general decline in women’s electoral fortunes from the perspective of representation. The total number of women in both legislatures in 2019 and 2023 underscores this fact.  In 2019 for the joint federal and state legislatures of 1,460 seats, there were 62 women (4.3%); while in 2023, only 65 women will sit in the federal and state legislatures (4.5%).  Overall, this is a very marginal improvement in the number of women within public decision-making between 2019 and 2023. The marginal wins and heavy losses at the ballot box show that much more needs to be done to address the hurdles encountered by female politicians.

In terms of female parliamentarians, Nigeria lags on the continent. Rwanda has the highest proportion of seats held by women at 61.25%, which is also the highest figure in the world. In other parts of Africa, South Africa, Namibia and Uganda have 46%, 44% and 34% female parliamentarians respectively. In West Africa, Senegal has the highest number of women in its national parliament at 42.4% of the seats.  Guinea and Mali have 29.63% and 26.45% respectively.  Republic of Niger has 26%, Benin Republic, 25%, Togo, 18.7% Ghana, 14.5%, Sierra Leone, 12.33%, Cote d’Ivoire, 12.5%, Liberia, 10.96%, Gambia 8.6% and Burkina Faso has 6.3%.  Nigeria, the largest country in the sub-region has the lowest number of women in parliament at 3.6%.

Some Reasons Why Women Lose at the Polls

To be sure, it is not the lack of participation per se that has caused the loss on such a scale by female contestants and left state institutions largely male dominated. There are other societal influences that hinder women from achieving the desired electoral results and over the years, there have been deep discussions about these factors.

Possibly the most pressing challenge to Nigeria’s electoral democracy is monetisation of politics and vote-buying. This is a recurring problem which has not been adequately addressed by the law.  Among other provisions, sections85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90 in the 2022 Electoral Act list: offences in relation to finances of a political party; period to be covered in annual statement; power to limit contributions to a political party; and limitations on election expenses of political parties etc.  Butthe lack of enforcement continues to blight the political and electoral system.

Similarly, the Electoral Act does not have any provisions to address the lack of inclusion of women in political party hierarchies and candidates’ nomination and selection lists.  Nigeria’s electoral laws must be strengthened to become more inclusive and INEC as the agency at the helm of electoral matters must through diligent enforcement, ensure total compliance.

Women politicians are also subjected to a variety of other factors which also includes bias in the media, god-fatherism, trado-cultural and religious barriers and so on. Similarly, election violence has seen loss of lives and destruction of property. For example, some women have lost their lives before, during and after elections.  The reported cases of Emily Aborishade, Joyce Maimuna Katai, Salome Abuh and Emilia Gilbert from Ekiti, Nasarawa, Kogi and Rivers states respectively, and mor

e recently, Victoria Chintex in Kaduna State, come to mind. These killings must not be swept under the carpet, and perpetrators of all acts of violence must be held accountable. It is important to make the environment safe for all candidates, especially marginalised groups like women.

Historical Precedence and Patterns of Political Exclusion

Historically, women have been excluded and marginalised in electoral politics, public decision-making institutions, constitution-drafting and governance in general.   Hence, for further insights, it is relevant to trace the roots of women’s under-representation in political leadership and elective representation back in history.

This pattern of imbalance can be directly linked to the British colonial era, when provisions in the 1922 Clifford Constitution stated that elections to the Legislative Council of Nigeria were for “Every male person who is a British subject or a native of the Protectorate of Nigeria, who is of the age of twenty-one years or upwards…”

This set off a process which saw Nigeria’s electoral and political party systems being built on male power and authority. There was collusion between the forms of colonial and indigenous patriarchy which saw colonial statutes and ordinances such as the one mentioned above, suit the male hegemony culture already being exhibited by early nationalists who excluded women from their mainstream political structures.

From then on, the evidence points to the over-representation of men in public life and domination of the political party structures, attendance of constitutional conferences and so on.

The early political parties such as the Nigerian National Democratic Party and the Nigerian Youth Movement built and nurtured systems which were centred round male political aspirations, interests and needs, with the women’s sections left to deal with mundane matters. With each wave of political parties from the nationalist era through to the First, Second, Third and the current Fourth republics, political institutions remain largely male-centric.

The historical evidence shows that during the 1950s, the new constitutions (Macpherson of 1951 and Lyttleton of 1954) allowed limited franchise for female taxpayers and later on, universal suffrage for everyone in the Eastern and Western regions of Nigeria. However, those women who were eligible to participate and contest in elections faced stiff resistance from their male colleagues.  Indeed, this may account for why Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti is quoted as saying, her failure to win at the intermediate round of the Electoral College in 1951 was due to “male chauvinism.” Again, in June 1957, she reiterated this point in a statement to the press that “Women are used as election tools.”

During Nigeria’s First Republic from 1960 to 1965, only four women won elections. They were Margaret Ekpo, Janet Mokelu and Ekpo Young to the Eastern House of Assembly and Esther Soyannwo to the Western House of Assembly. Each woman is on record as having to stave off resistance by their male political associates. Thus, there is a historical pattern of systemic male bias and overwhelming exclusion of women from the country’s politics and governance, which as the data shows, still exists today.

Recommendations

As the data shows, despite their share of the population, women are being politically short-changed in the executive and legislative arms of government. There are wide gaps between the number of men and women who govern, hold positions of political leadership and occupy seats in the federal and state legislatures.

The answer to women’s substantive representation in the country’s public life lies in several measures. To reverse the continued marginalisation of women in politics and governance, the next administration should undertake the following:

• Conduct a forensic review on the status of women vis-à-vis their massive loss at the polls from 2015 to now, as well as their overall participation and representation in public affairs;

• Implement the April6,2022, Federal High Court ruling on 35% Affirmative Action in favour of women;
• Appoint an equal number of female and male ministers, or at the minimum, implement the 35% affirmative action for women in line with the ruling mentioned above;
• Ensure that the women are placed in substantive ministerial postsincluding those perceived to be traditional male portfolios.
• Implement and enforce the revised National Gender Policy 2021- 2026. Its key planks are designed to promote gender equality, political leadership and social inclusion across the three tiers of government. This is to address the massive losses experienced by women in the past three elections.
• Make social inclusion a key plank of its administration
• Provide (through an Executive Bill) the legal framework for the National Gender Policy for compliance and to ensure its enforceability
• Explore the principle of proportional representation to ensure that women who got as far as the ballot box are included in federal and state governments
• Promote a caucus of male gender champions in the parties, state and national assemblies to promote gender-responsive legislation;
• Promote the He-for-She Movement into an effective and vibrant coalition across religious and political divides;
• Sponsor legislations ontemporary special mechanism by the 10^th National Assemblysuch as reserved seats for women in state and federal legislative institutions. This is known to work and has boosted women’s representation in legislatures in Europe, Latin America and United Kingdom. Closer to home, this kind of quota system has significantly altered parliamentary landscapes in South Africa, Tunisia, Namibia and Mozambique etc;
• Influence the reversal of all of the five rejected Gender Bills mentioned above, so they can be passed and signed into law by the president towards the socio-political empowerment and growth of girls and women;
• Pass the Gender and Equitable Opportunities Bill 2021 and alsoensure appropriate budgeting in order to effect to its implementation;
• Lead by example in the ruling party and then persuade other political parties to adopt gender quotas in their executive organisational and hierarchical structures as recommended by Uwais Report in 2007. In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) has perfected its voluntary party quota system and women form significant representation in its parliament.

Other stakeholders should also:

• Gender advocates must work on nomenclature that would be embraced by faith and culture leaders, so pursuance of gender-friendly legislation will face less resistance
• Conduct enlightenment programmes about the meaning of Gender Equality and its benefits for the empowerment of girls, women and Nigerians in general;
• Build a coalition of women (like in Senegal to achieve the Parity Law) across party lines and CSOs to organise, strategise to diminish the shadow of political, electoral and traditional patriarchy;
• Build on the positive wave of some political parties towards women’s representation in the governorship elections and lead by further example in local government councils;
• Reform the composition of Constitution Amendment/Alteration Exercises to make it more inclusive and reflect Nigeria’s population in order to achieve favourable constitutional guarantees for girls and women;
• INEC should consider sponsoring amendments to the 2022 Electoral Act which will ensure promotion and compliance of inclusivity on political party quotas and candidates’ lists etc;
• Work with journalists to eliminate bias of all forms against women politicians in traditional and social media spaces.

*Mrs Agunbiade, journalist, historian and gender advocate, is the author of the book: ‘Emerging from the Margins: Women’s Experiences in Colonial and Contemporary Nigerian History’

Sources:

• Dailytrust.com,Meet 48 Women who made it to state assemblies,’Saturday March 23, 2023
• International IDEA, https://www.idea.int
• https://www.inecnigeria.org
• Premiumtimes.ng,IWD 2023: Nigeria falling in women’s political participation, March 10, 2023
• Statista: Percentage of women in national parliaments in African countries 2022, www.statista.com
• Women Data Hub https://data.unwomen.org
• Women Liberty and Development Initiative, 2019

By Samuel Ajayi | On 4^th February 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed the North Central Development Commission Bill into law, which brings to six the number of zonal development commissions in Nigeria. With the South South Development Commission—whose bill is yet to be signed—also receiving allocation in the 2025 budget recently passed by the National Assembly, this number is likely to rise to seven soon.

By Adebayo Ahmed | The question of food is one that is now on everybody’s lips in Nigeria. The food situation has worsened significantly in the last year partly driven by efforts to turn the economy around in terms of petrol subsidy removal and the foreign exchange market reform. The situation seems dire with increasing cases of violence and civil unrest associated with hunger and with fears that if the situation is not well handled, the country could be headed to the same type of civil unrest witnessed with the COVID19 palliatives in 2020 or worse.

Fig 1: Prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity. Source: FAOStat

Although the food issue is, or at least should be, top of the agenda right now, the challenge of food security is not really new to Nigeria. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), about 34.7% of the population was experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity in the 2014 to 2016 reference period. By any standard, 34.7% was already high. However, the situation worsened almost continuously each year so much so that by the 2020-2022 reference period, an estimated 69.7% of the population was experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity, with 21.3% in the severe category. This worsening trend is backed up by data by the Cadre Harmonise which estimates that 31.5 million households in 26 states plus the FCT are expected to be in crisis in the “lean” season between June and August of 2024. This is up from the 26.5 million people estimated to have been in crisis for the same period in 2023. The total number nationwide is likely higher given that the Cadre Harmonise looks at only 26 states and the FCT. Importantly, the distribution of hunger is nationwide with almost no state spared. The combination of worsening hunger and national spread means that Nigeria is near the top of countries with hunger problems. For example, Nigeria ranks 109th out of 125 countries on the Global Hunger Index¹ and 107th out of 113 countries on the Global Food Security Index².

The rising hunger is not without consequences. According to the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, an estimated 37% of Nigerian children under five years of age are stunted, meaning they do not develop to their full potential. According to UNICEF³, an estimated two million children already suffer from “severe and acute malnutrition”. This likely contributes to our under-five mortality rates of 107.2 per 1000 live births, the third highest of all countries compiled according to data from the World Bank⁴. Given our population relative to others, it implies that globally, a large number of children who die before the age of five from reasons, including hunger, are from Nigeria. Although the current situation seems more dire than normal, it is important to accept that this hunger crisis is not a one-off problem.t is a problem that has worsened continuously over a long period of time.

Fig 2: Food Inflation and Nominal GDP per capita growth. Source: NBS and Author’s calculations

 Causes of Food Security Crisis

The causes of the food security crisis are actually very simple and can be thought of from two perspectives. The first being that food prices have risen systematically faster than household incomes. As is clear from Figure 2 above, average incomes have grown significantly slower than food prices since 2015. This means households have been getting continuously squeezed and food has become increasingly unaffordable. The measure of average income used here is simply average nominal GDP per capita but if you incorporate income inequality then it is likely you will see a tighter squeeze at the lower end of the income ladder. Things have gotten worse in the last year but it should be clear to all that the situation has been brewing for almost a decade.

The causes of rising food prices have been rehashed over and over again but they are worth repeating regardless. Monetary policy has been loose, leading to the classic demand push inflation of more money chasing fewer goods. Trade policy has been restrictive, leading to supply disruptions which have put upward pressure on food prices. Interstate logistics continues to be challenging, leading to a wide variation in prices across the country and household paying more than they could have been paying if logistics were better. Farming techniques continue to be “traditional” and rain-driven, leading to mostly low agricultural yields. Climate change has made it more difficult for farmers to produce reliably. The security situation has continued to worsen especially in key agricultural areas, limiting access to usually productive farmlands. And so on.

The last point highlights the second perspective for the cause of the worsening food crisis: livelihoods i.e. whatever people do to earn a living. To be clear, livelihoods here does not refer only to those of farmers, but to barbers and street vendors, and bankers, and so. And as can be seen from the 2023 Cadre Harmonise which estimated the distribution of food insecurity by state, there are more people under hunger stress in Lagos State than in any other state. The majority of people in Lagos are not employed in the agriculture sector. Food prices may rise fast enough that even people whose livelihoods are not disrupted can become food insecure. But the other perspective is that people’s livelihoods may be disrupted so that even with the same food prices, they no longer have the capacity to afford to keep themselves out of food insecurity.

The disruption to livelihoods in rural communities is a good place to start in thinking about this perspective. The deteriorating security situation and climate change are both combining to make earning a livelihood from agriculture increasingly difficult. Farmers in many communities cannot access lands because of terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, and so on. In other places where they can access land, climate change is leading to more irregular weather, making their production more volatile thus impacting their livelihoods. On the urban front, the absence of decent job growth and almost consistent economic shocks, from the 2015 oil price crash to COVID19, to recurring foreign exchange crises, have put a similar dent on livelihoods and income growth. Both factors mean that almost everyone is now feeling the squeeze, though the poor (who are in the majority) are disproportionately impacted.

The Path Out of the Crisis

Given that the crisis is seemingly largely about affordability, the path out of the crisis likely involves tackling affordability both immediately and in the long-term. In terms of immediate responses, the key is to on the one hand get money directly into the pockets of households, and on the other hand take action to put downward pressure on food prices. The government, at the federal, state, and local levels, should have a lot more money flowing to their coffers given that petrol subsidies were removed, and that the weakening of the national currency should mean more Naira from crude oil revenues. Re-directing some of this windfall directly into the pockets of Nigerians would automatically improve their capacity to afford food and will do so immediately. There has been talk of a cash transfer programme by the Ministry of Finance with 15 million households targeted. It is however time for more action and less talk. And of course, states and local government areas that are also benefitting from the windfall should not be let off the hook.

Some may argue that there is a risk of putting even more pressure on inflation if more money is funneled directly to households. This does not have to be the case in practice. If the social transfers are funded by already existing revenue and not by an increase in money supply through increased domestic debt or central bank financing, then the impact on inflation should be minimal.

And of course, putting money into the pockets of households however has to go hand in hand with other attempts to increase food supply and put downward pressure on food prices. On this, there are many short-term options on the table. Can we do anything to immediately reduce the portion of food prices that is due to logistical challenges and corruption on the highways? Does it make sense to have a sixty to seventy percent tariff plus duty on imported wheatand rice, at a time when food prices are relatively sky-high and unaffordable?

Dealing with the currency issues, which has resulted in the Naira weakening so much that most food items in Nigeria are cheaper than in some neighbouring countries also needs to be resolved. International demand for food items from Nigeria has increased putting upward pressure on prices. A weakening Naira means that food traders would rather collect foreign currency than sell to domestic consumers. As the currency weakens further, domestic prices for tradeable food items would have to adjust which would worsen the affordability challenges. The problems on the macroeconomic front transmit to very real challenges. Stabilising things on the macroeconomic front, specifically the exchange rate, is therefore a necessary part of the immediate measure to deal with the challenge.

On a related note, it may be tempting to try to limit the impact of the exchange rate on food prices by other means such as trying to limit cross-border trade or trying to increase domestic supply to keep domestic prices lower than prices in neighbouring countries. Both temptations are likely to be unsuccessful. We have a long history of trying and failing at restricting regional trade and the only likely result of attempts to do that now would be more smuggling and more illicit and informal trade. More importantly, restricting trade today would disincentivise farmers from doing all they can to boost domestic output tomorrow and reap the rewards of demand from international markets. The same can be said for releasing food items from strategic reserves. Given the strong demand from neighbouring countries, the food items would likely simply flow there, unless maybe they are distributed directly to households.

Longer-term Solutions

Beyond the immediate term, the longer-term solutions have to revolve around reversing the trends observed in Figure 2. That is, working to ensure that average incomes grow faster than food prices.

Conventional macroeconomic management is the starting point for ensuring that food inflation does not spiral out of control like it has done in the recent past. This means having money supply that is not growing systematically too fast, and continuing to diversify exports to minimise the risk of currency crises. In the face of macroeconomic challenges, even excellent policy on all other fronts will struggle to yield the desired results.

Improving incomes and resilience of households is the second major long-term agenda. The richer the household, the more likely they will be able to cope with food price shocks. The institutionalisation of social protection will also help ensure that households have something to fall back on in the event of more serious shocks. In this context, it is important to realise that improving resilience is not just about rural farmers but also about urban poor households, or those who are at risk of falling into poverty. For urban households, this means better jobs.

Fig 3 - a; Rice yields

Fig 3 - b: Tomato yields

Fig 3 - c: cereal yields

Fig 3 - d: Cassava yields

For rural agriculture-based households, this means improving productivity. Agricultural productivity is still relatively low and this is one of the foundations for domestic supply problems and high food insecurity in rural communities. As is clear from the yield on rice, tomatoes, cereals, and even cassava, yields in Nigeria are relatively very low. Improving productivity should therefore be the number-one agenda. This agenda would involve transforming farmers from subsistence farmers who farm to survive, to entrepreneurs who farm to get incomes. Turning farmers to entrepreneurs would have to involve investments in yield-improving infrastructure such as irrigation facilities, improving seedlings and seeds’ availability, improving knowledge about best practices through better extension services, improving rural security, improving resilience to climate change, improving farm-to-market infrastructure and logistics. And so on. As shown in Figure 4, the difference in prices between states is so large that just cutting logistics costs from moving food around can have a significant impact on reducing prices.

However, working to improve domestic supply and reduce costs is not enough. It is also important to build on and improve resilience to shocks in supply. This does not only involve producing more food. It involves two other factors, the first of which is storage. Storage, in the simplest of terms, is keep food when things are good to eat when things are not so good. The cyclical nature of our weather patterns in Nigeria means that we are no strangers to the importance of food storage, even if occasionally we like to throw around words like hoarders and saboteurs. Improving the quality and organisation of storage facilities should mean we are better able to cope with shocks to supply.

The second factor is trade. International trade. Leveraging international trade and building strong trade networks essentially ensures that supply is more resilient. For example, if domestic demand for a particular food item is more than current domestic supply, perhaps because the rains did not arrive on time, or because a flood damaged some output, or because the farmers techniques were not that great, international supply helps minimise the risks that the demand-supply gaps would cause scarcity or price increases. The same applies for situations when supply outstrips demand. International trade ensures that excess supply can go somewhere else and not lead to a price collapse which would also hurt livelihoods of farmers.

The second factor is trade. International trade. Leveraging international trade and building strong trade networks essentially ensures that supply is more resilient. For example, if domestic demand for a particular food item is more than current domestic supply, perhaps because the rains did not arrive on time, or because a flood damaged some output, or because the farmers techniques were not that great, international supply helps minimise the risks that the demand-supply gaps would cause scarcity or price increases. The same applies for situations when supply outstrips demand. International trade ensures that excess supply can go somewhere else and not lead to a price collapse which would also hurt livelihoods of farmers.

Getting to grips with the food security challenge is urgent but there are enough tools available to the government to turn things around and ensure that we do continue to be one of the basket cases of hunger in the world. But it will require quick action to do things today, and the foresight and the stamina to undertake more long-term, strategic and coordinated actions to remove Nigeria permanently from the hunger map. The current episode of high food prices should raise the status of the lingering food security challenges in Nigeria and propel policy makers to take immediate and longer-term decisions to sustainably reverse the trend. Food security should be seen as national security.

Photo Credit: Mansur Ibrahim

Footnotes

[1] https://www.globalhungerindex.org/nigeria.html

[2] https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/project/food-security-index/explore-countries/nigeria

[3] https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/nutrition

[4] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT?most_recent_value_desc=true