By Samuel Ajayi | After the recently-concluded United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), Nigeria’s Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, Dr Bosun Tijani released a report summarising his activities at the annual summit. The 18-page document references Artificial Intelligence (AI) over 25 times, reflecting the administration’s intention of using AI as a transformative tool for the country.

This aligns with Nigeria’s recently-unveiled draft National AI Strategy, which is open for public input. The draft strategy outlines the country’s vision for integrating AI to drive economic growth, enhance social inclusion, and promote technological innovation. Nigeria aims to become a key player in the global AI landscape. When this strategy is finalised and ratified, Nigeria will join the ranks of African countries with national AI strategies. These countries include Benin Republic, Egypt, Ghana, Mauritius, Rwanda, Senegal, and Tunisia. Mauritius holds the distinction of being the first African country with a national AI strategy which it unveiled in 2018.

Nigeria’s draft AI strategy, while ambitious in its vision and comprehensive in its scope, overlooks certain critical areas. In this article, we will be look at the key highlights of the draft strategy and point at areas in need of improvement.

A Vision of AI-Led Transformation

The draft document cannot be accused of lacking on ambition. It boldly envisions Nigeria "to be a global leader in harnessing the transformative power of AI through responsible, ethical, and inclusive innovation, fostering sustainable development through collaborative efforts." At its core, the strategy aims to leverage AI for national growth. It seeks to harness AI to address pressing challenges in key sectors like agriculture, healthcare, and education. These are areas where AI’s potential to drive efficiency and improve outcomes is immense.  The draft strategy then identifies many of Nigeria’s strengths and proposes ways of taking advantage of them. It also highlights three objectives that are central to its goals: Economic Growth and Competitiveness; Social Development and Inclusion; Technological Advancement and Leadership.

The document sees AI as a transformative tool for Nigeria's economy, and identifies potentials for creating new industries and jobs, enhancing productivity, and attracting foreign investment. Another important aspect of the draft AI strategy is its emphasis on social good. It addresses societal issues like poverty, inequality, and access to essential services such as healthcare and education. It spends time detailing how AI can have a significant effect in these areas. Furthermore, the strategy aims to position Nigeria as a regional and global leader in AI. It proposes tangible steps to develop domestic AI expertise and establish ethical frameworks for AI development, recognising that AI leadership requires both technological competence and ethical considerations.

As a natural follow up to the identified objectives, the draft strategy lists five pillars that it hopes will transform Nigeria’s AI landscape for good. The five pillars are: Building Foundational AI Infrastructure; Building and Sustaining a World-class AI Ecosystem; Developing a Robust and Ethical Framework for AI; Preparing Nigeria for an AI Future; and Establishing a Clear and Consistent Governance Framework. The document then outlines the different plans under each pillar.

The first pillar focuses on building foundational AI infrastructure, recognising the need for robust data centres and high-performance computing resources. The second pillar aims to foster a vibrant AI ecosystem through initiatives like the AI Synergy Alliance and AI Centres of Excellence. The third pillar emphasizes the development of a robust and ethical framework for AI, and proposes a comprehensive AI ethics assessment framework. The fourth pillar addresses the long-term integration of AI into all sectors of society, emphasizing education reform and workforce development. The fifth and final pillar establishes a clear and consistent governance framework for responsible AI development, covering data privacy and risk mitigation.

It lays out an ethical framework that reflects a commitment to fairness, transparency, and human rights. It however tries to walk the tightrope between encouraging innovation while maintaining ethical responsibility for key actors. This rope is an increasingly tight one globally and only after a while can the results of current regulations become apparent. But it is noteworthy that this is a major concern in the draft strategy.

The document never fails to mention Nigeria’s youthful population. The draft strategy rightly identifies the potential demographic dividend and a major opportunity to build a tech-savvy workforce that could transform Nigeria into a leading AI hub. In the section on identifying Nigeria’s relative strengths and weaknesses, the document quickly points out that about 70% of Nigeria’s population is under the age of 30. Already, the Federal Ministry of Communication, innovation, and Digital Economy (FmCiDe) launched 3MTT in the third quarter of last year to create two million digital jobs by 2025 targeted at this demographic group.  

The document also clearly recognises the challenges and obstacles that may hamper the full implementation of the strategy itself and spends considerable time discussing some of these challenges and how to mitigate the challenges. However, there are some challenges that require a second look before the document is finalised.

Talent Drain: A Crisis in the Making

Over the past decade, Nigeria has been losing its brightest tech talents to countries with better job opportunities, higher wages, and more stable environments. Tech Nation, a global talent programme that allows technology talents to emigrate to the UK, listed Nigerians as the third highest beneficiaries of the scheme behind India and the USA.  Other developed countries have taken different routes to attract talents from developing countries and talented Nigerians are taking the opportunity. While the strategy briefly mentions this challenge, it offers no concrete plan to stem the flow of skilled professionals from the country. The strategy has a lot more for how it may get people in the diaspora to contribute, including through a special “Nigerian AI Talent Transfer Programme” which would offer incentives for diaspora AI researchers. But retaining local talent is as important as reaching out to diaspora talent.

This is a glaring oversight. Nigeria cannot become a global AI leader if its top talents continue to emigrate. To reverse this trend, the government must do more than offer vague promises.

The Infrastructure Problem

The more critical part of the success of the AI strategy remains infrastructure. No matter how grand the vision, without the infrastructure to support it, the strategy risks crumbling under its own weight. Nigeria’s current digital infrastructure is simply not equipped to handle the demands of large-scale AI development. Ranked 132nd globally, Nigeria’s internet speed is not fast enough for the country’s AI ambition. Also, access to High-Performance Computing (HPC), critical for AI research and applications, remains sparse.

The strategy acknowledges these gaps, but the solutions offered are vague and lack urgency. Talk of establishing HPC centres and clean energy-powered AI clusters sounds promising on paper, but there are no clear timelines, funding mechanisms, or partnerships identified to take these projects beyond mere wishes. In contrast, Rwanda’s AI strategy outlines specific measures to address these challenges, including a review of ICT procurement guidelines, detailed plans for land acquisition, and feasibility studies. This level of detail contrasts sharply with the broad approach in Nigeria’s draft strategy.

The infrastructure challenge requires more specifics and a clearer roadmap. It must be acknowledged the that the Minister of Communication, Innovation, and Digital Economy received a Federal Executive Council approval in May for an SPV to facilitate the delivery of over 90,000km of fibre optic cable to increase Nigeria’s internet penetration. If Nigeria truly wants to compete on the global stage in AI, investments in infrastructure such as this must be clearly stated and laid out. 

A Path Forward

A National AI Strategy is a crucial step in the right direction for Nigeria. The vision in the draft document is ambitious, and its goals are aligned with global trends. But if Nigeria is to become a player in the AI space, it needs to address its infrastructure shortcomings head-on. And this will include not just AI-specific infrastructure. For example, HPCs require power in abundant quantity and even some developed countries  are beginning to take notice. Nigeria currently struggles with power supply for basic household and industrial needs. This will no doubt have a massive effect on the country’s AI ambitions. In a recent report on the state of Compute access, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change noted the challenge of power as a major obstacle toward achieving this. Bridging this gap will more imagination and more funding. A recent statement from Nigeria’s Ministry of Power says that the power sector requires a yearly investment of 10bn dollars over the next ten years.  This puts a severe limit on Nigeria's AI ambitions as outlined in the draft strategy.

The focus of the strategy on youth is the right one. We must press our advantage on this part and deliberately push the limits within our current realities. The focus must be on driving innovation within our unique mobile-first innovation context. This will involve looking at programmes that encourage model deployment on less demanding computing environments like laptops or mobile phones. The talent challenge is a serious one and we must look at getting ahead of the challenge. We can take a leaf from the recently released health worker migration policy by the Ministry of Health. We must find creative ways not just to retain but add value to the talents while ensuring that Nigeria benefits from the innovation. We can also borrow a leaf from the Egyptian approach of offering specialised scholarships that allow local talent to learn abroad with a promise of coming back. This bonded approach adds value both to the talents and to the country.

Overall, Nigeria’s draft AI Strategy is full of promise and seems to hit the right notes. But the draft strategy needs more thought on how to address the two challenges of infrastructure deficit and talent retention.  These are not fatal defects, as they can be corrected in the final draft of the strategy. The ultimate test, however, will be implementation. No matter how sound a strategy is, what makes the difference is competent, disciplined and sustained implementation.

By Ayobami Ayorinde, Uchechukwu Eze, Oluchi Nkeonye, and Seyi Akinbodewa | On 24^th September 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released two reports on the state of the labour force in Nigeria.

The reports, titled the Nigeria Labour Force Survey and produced in partnership with the World Bank and the International Labour Organisation (ILO), covered the whole of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. The increase in unemployment from 5% in the third quarter of 2023 to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024 has dominated the headlines.

By Ayobami Ayorinde and Uchechukwu Eze | The July 2024 inflation data released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s key inflation figures fell for the first time in 19 months.

By Samuel Ajayi | Last week’s policy conversation on “Enthroning Accountability in Local Governance in Nigeria” attracted a diverse audience of more than 200 participants and threw up numerous ideas on how to deepen accountability and good governance in Nigeria’s third tier of government.

By Samuel Ajayi | Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a pivotal force that is shaping and transforming lives, industries and economies around the world. AI has come a long way from the early days of the conceptual and visionary work of Alan Turing, who laid the groundwork for the field with his pioneering ideas.

By Ayobami Ayorinde | On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (FMAS) and other key stakeholders released the National Agricultural Sample Census (NASC) for 2022. This is the first census report detailing the state of agriculture in the country since the last one released in 1993.

By Babajide Fowowe | Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the first of a series of new reports, titled the Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD). The NBS defines the cost of a healthy diet as “the cost per day of the least expensive combination of foods that meets the daily requirements for a healthy diet for an adult”¹. Thus, the CoHD represents the minimum daily requirements for an adult to obtain a healthy meal. The healthy diet basket consists of 11 food items: three items of vegetables, two items of starchy staples, two items of fruits, two items of animal source foods, one item of oils and fats, and one item of legumes, nuts and seeds².

As would be expected in a diverse country such as ours, there are disparities in the cost of a healthy diet across rural and urban areas, states, geo-political zones, and over time. For example, in December 2023, the daily cost of a healthy diet was lowest in Katsina State with N594; while it was highest in Ekiti State with N1,052. This means that in order to maintain a healthy diet, the average adult in Ekiti State would have to spend almost double what the average adult in Katsina State would spend.

The availability of regular and consistent data on the cost of a healthy diet is very useful for a number of reasons. First, a healthy diet is critical for maintaining good health, which is a precursor to better standards of living. Second, knowledge about how costly a healthy diet is will be helpful in shaping policies around ensuring affordability of food. Third, the CoHD can help to track prices and highlight areas, states or zones where essential food prices are high, and inform efforts to tackle such high prices.

In what follows, we present six key insights from the CoHD reports recently released by NBS.

Insight 1: The National Average of the Cost of a Healthy Diet Increased by 68.3% between January 2023 and December 2023

The national average of the CoHD increased from N467 in January 2023 to N786 in December 2023³ (Figure 1). This implies an increase of 68.3%. The average CoHD was below N500 from January till April, but increased to N503 in May. It increased to N515 in June and these increases continued until December. The steepest increase occurred between June and July when the COHD increased from N515 to N590 (14.6%), while the lowest increase occurred in March, with CoHD increasing from N478 to N480 (0.42%).

It is particularly insightful that the CoHD increased for each successive month throughout the year. One would have expected food prices to change with the seasons. In particular, it would have been expected that prices would be lower during the rainy season. However, costs increased by larger percentages during the rainy season. This suggests that some extraneous factors are affecting food prices. The second half of the year had the largest increases, perhaps reflecting the effects of the removal of petroleum subsidies and foreign exchange reforms.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD)

Insight 2: The Cost of a Healthy Diet is Lower in Northern Nigeria than Southern Nigeria

Between October and December 2023, the average cost of a healthy diet was lowest in the North East at N633, followed by N644 in the North West, and N665 in the North Central Figure 2). For the same period, the average CoHD was highest in the South East at N919, followed by the South West at N872, and South South at N788. Thus, it costs more to buy a healthy food that constitutes a healthy diet in the southern part of the country than in the northern part.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD)

Examination of the data for individual states reveals the same picture. All the northern states had CoHD below the national average, while Cross River was the only southern state with CoHD below the national average (Figure 3). Thus, interestingly, the national average seems to act like a dividing line between the northern and southern parts of the country. This is not particularly surprising, as the northern part of the country has historically produced more food than the south.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD)

Insight 3: The Cost of a Healthy Diet is Lower in Rural Areas than Urban Areas

Between October and December 2023, the cost of a healthy diet was cheaper in rural areas than urban areas in 32 states (including the FCT), while CoHD was cheaper in the urban areas than rural areas in five states (Kebbi, Katsina, Kwara, Taraba, and Kaduna). There is wide disparity in the magnitude of these differences (Figure 4). The CoHD in the urban areas was higher than the rural areas by more than N100 in four states (Adamawa, Gombe, FCT, Bauchi). The difference was between N50 and N99 in six states (Nasarawa, Rivers, Imo, Niger, Anambra, Plateau). For the remaining states, the difference was lower than N50.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD)

Insight 4: Animal Source Foods Account for the Largest Share (38%) of the Cost of a Healthy Diet while Legumes, Nuts and Seeds Account for the Lowest Share (6%)

Between October and December 2023, the average cost of animal source foods in the healthy diet was N285 (Figure 5). This represents 38% of the total average CoHD of N744 for these months (Figure 5). Starchy staples had the second highest daily cost of N160 (22%), followed by vegetables with a daily cost of N100 (13%). Fruits had a daily average cost of N88 (12), oils and fats cost N65 (9%), and legumes, nuts and seeds on average cost N45 (6%).

For the share of total calories, starchy staples accounted for the highest share (50%) (Figure 5). This is followed by oils and fats (13%), animal source foods (13%), and legumes nuts and seeds (13%), fruits (7%) and vegetables (5%). It is interesting that while animal source foods make up only 13% of the total daily calories, they account for the largest share (38%) of total daily CoHD.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD)

Insight 5: The Cost of a Healthy Diet for Children is Missing

Interestingly, the cost of a healthy diet for children is omitted from the report. Considering the fact that the Multidimensional Poverty Indicators for 2022 showed that there are more poor children than poor adults, it is important to know the CoHD for children. Severe undernutrition is a serious issue, with 30.5% of children under 5 living in a household in which at least one child under5 is severely stunted or severely underweight⁴. 36.8% of children under 5 suffer from malnutrition as evidenced by stunting⁵. These figures show the severity of child malnutrition in the country. It is thus essential to understand how much it would cost for children to get the minimum daily requirements for a healthy diet.

Insight 6: For Many States, Workers on the Minimum Wage will Struggle to Fund Other Expenditure after Buying Food

The NBS noted that the figures provided for CoHD represent the minimum cost, and do not include transportation and preparation costs. When transportation and preparation costs are included, the CoHD will rise. This brings into stark reality the high costs of healthy diets, especially for low income earners. Using the December 2023 figures, the average national daily cost of a healthy diet was N786. Simply multiplying this by the 31 days in the month gives a value of N24,369. There is wide disparity when this monthly total is computed for all states (Figure 6). States like Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Lagos and Ogun have monthly total monthly costs above the minimum wage of N30,000 (Figure 6). Nine states had monthly totals below N21,000: Katsina, Niger, Adamawa, Borno, Zamfara, Kaduna, Benue, Jigawa, and Kano. These monthly total figures will increase when transportation and preparation costs are added. For workers on the minimum wage of N30,000 per month residing in states with monthly totals above the national average of N24,369, after buying food, there will be very little left to feed and care for children, and fund other critical expenditure.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD)

Conclusion

This short note has presented six key insights from the new Cost of a Healthy Diet reports released by the NBS. We note that these reports are important, because the availability of regular and consistent data on the cost of a healthy diet is very useful for policy. It is hoped that the NBS will continue to release these reports to further provide information, strengthen dialogue and engagement, and ultimately lead to better food policies in the country.

 Footnotes

1. https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1241452

2. Ibid.

3. The data for the whole year was only available for the national average, but disaggregated data for states was not available for the whole year

4. https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1241254

5. https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2021-22

By Ifetayo Idowu and Faridha Salihu-Lukman | Last Wednesday, 22 November 2023, Agora Policy and partners convened a policy conversation in Abuja to explore the intersection between climate change, energy transition, and the green economy in Nigeria. The event also featured the public presentation of Agora Policy's latest report, entitled "Climate Change and Social-Economic Development in Nigeria," produced with the support of MacArthur Foundation, also the sponsor of the policy conversation.

From the remarks, goodwill messages, panel discussion, special interventions and the question-and-answer session, many ideas were offered and discussed about the state of climate change awareness and interventions in Nigeria and what the country needs to do to minimise the risks and maximise the opportunities of the global transition to cleaner energy.

Below are five of the key insights from the deliberation.

• Denial and defiance define national attitude to climate change in Nigeria
  There was a clear consensus among the speakers that evidence abounds that climate change negatively impacts Nigeria through different channels and that it  increases Nigeria’s exposure to hunger, poverty, diseases, and conflicts. There was also an agreement that the toll of climate change on the country will get worse if urgent action is not taken. However, that sense of urgency is hardly seen even within official circles in the country. Mr. Waziri Adio, the Executive Director of Agora Policy, said the national attitude on climate change “oscillates between denial and indifference.” According to Mr. Tayo Aduloju, the CEO-designate of the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), there is another dimension: defiance. "This defiance comes from perspective that climate change is not Africa's fault, not Nigeria's fault. Therefore, ignore it.”There was an agreement that these attitudes are not useful and need to change for the country to adequately adapt to climatic changes and appropriately position itself to benefit from energy transition.

• Climate change is a major, not marginal, challenge for Nigeria
  In his presentation, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke emphasized that it is wrong to see climate change only from the lens of the environment. He submitted that it is more useful to see climate change as the key development challenge of the country. He stated: "Climate change is not a marginal environmental problem out there. But it is a major, perhaps the defining, socio-economic, geopolitical, demographic challenge facing Nigeria today." Other speakers echoed the same sentiment, calling for more urgent and bolder actions, and the need to mainstream climate change into national development plans.

• The poor and the vulnerable could be further disadvantaged
  Various speakers argued that climate change imposes a disproportionate burden on the poor, the vulnerable and the marginalised and could further deepen inequality in terms of energy access and income in the country. Dr. Kole Shettima of MacArthur Foundation, Mrs. Funke Baruwa of Ford Foundation and Ms. Tengi George-Ikoli all made this point in various ways, and they all urged that climate policies be designed and implemented in an inclusive and collaborative manner, with special attention paid to ensuring that policies and actions bridge and not widen inequality in society.

• Showing benefits critical to optimising gains of the green economy
  Climate change is not all bad news as the transition to cleaner energy offers Nigeria and others opportunities for improving energy access, creating jobs and increasing economic growth. According to the World Bank Country Director, Dr. Shubham Chaudhuri, Nigeria needs to strike a delicate but necessary balance between improving energy access and aligning with the shift towards a low-carbon world. For Mr. Abubakar Suleiman, it is important to demonstrate to various stakeholders that embracing renewable energy will help to save cost, increase profits, create job and grow the economy. “One language that every understands is their bottom-line,” he said, emphasising the need for government to stimulate demand for renewables and to invest in the alternative energy eco-system so that Nigeria can benefit from every part of the value-chain. For example, he argued, Nigeria should not just be interested in using solar panels but also in making them too. Ms. George-Ikoli reinforced this point by advocating that Nigeria should be keen on processing its green minerals, rather than just exporting them raw.

• Simplification should be an article of faith
  Awareness about climate change is very low in Nigeria. Some of the speakers reckon that this is because the language adopted in communicating the issue is too technical for most people. There was a call to simplify the language and frame climate change in a way many Nigerians can understand and relate with. “We need to find a different nomenclature for the world climate change maybe then it will make more sense to policymakers and to the ordinary people," said Mrs. Baruwa. Dr. Shettima put it this way: "When you talk to Nigerians about climate change, most people don’t know what it is. But when you talk to Nigerians about flooding, they know what flooding is. When you talk to Nigerians about drought, they know what that means." Having a clear understanding of the meaning, impacts and opportunities of climate change will be critical to achieving an all-of-society and a coordinated approach that most speakers agreed is needed to move the needle on climate action in Nigeria.

Let’s start with the obvious: climate change still does not enjoy the prominence that it deserves in Nigeria. Yes, there are some individuals, organisations and government agencies that are making a strong case for, and designing and implementing, consequential climate interventions in the country. We salute them. We thank them.

But the sad, inconvenient truth is that climate change still does not rank very high on our policy agenda and in our popular imagination. Both in official circles and among the populace, climate issues are not seen as really important and urgent. Our national attitude oscillates between denial and indifference.

Most of our people, including highly-placed government officials, see climate change as other people’s problems or an issue that is only for tree-huggers and environmentalists, or something that should bother only those who have the luxury of not wrestling with hunger and other existential matters—as we say in Pidgin, “somtin for pipu wey don belleful.”

And because we are a people of fantastic faith, we simply think and believe that the negative impacts of climate change will never be our portion.

But the burdens of shifts in climatic conditions are already our portion. They are all around us. The rise in temperature, the irregular raining patterns, the near perennial flooding across the country, the increasing threats of desertification and gully and coastal erosions, and others already have deep, negative impacts on food production, food security and food inflation, and on water, on health and productivity, on energy and infrastructure, and on the conflicts that continue to multiply partly on account of vanishing natural resources.

Whether we want to accept it or not, whether we think it is other people’s or our own headache or not, whether we think it is our portion or not—climate change is already exerting a big toll on the things we consider critical and urgent. It is already here and now, not a matter of the hereafter. It is not what we can simply wish away by faith.

And because of its multi-dimensional, ramifying nature and multiplier effects, climate change is the most existential threat that we face already. And it is projected to get significantly worse within a few years. This silent crisis of today is likely to escalate into a catastrophic one soon—unless we act urgently, intentionally, and boldly.

There are additional reasons for greater urgency. We are a resource-intensive but ironically energy-poor country. The global transition away from fossil fuels poses grave threats to government revenue at all levels and to our capacity to provide the much-needed power for homes and industries.

Our capacity to fight poverty and achieve the SDGs and to increase national productivity and competitiveness may be further compromised. The transition away from fossil fuels may appear paused for now in the aftermath of Russia-Ukraine. But it won’t be paused for long.

In a related but significant vein, the energy transition is creating a new economy, an intense scramble for critical minerals already spurning instability around us, and a strategic positioning by countries to ensure that their interests are well served in the emerging economic order.

Where are we as a country in all of this? That’s a question for all of us to answer.

But let’s get this straight: we cannot afford to be a bit player in the emerging order except we are content with holding the short end of the stick or happy to be further consigned to the margins of existence.

We therefore need to see climate change as the central development challenge for our country, not in the future, but today.

And we need more than a conversation or the commitment of the converted. We need an all-of-society approach. From political authorisers to policy wonks to the ordinary persons on the streets and in the homes, we all have roles to play, and we all need to act differently.

*Excerpt from the welcome address by Waziri Adio, Founder/Executive Director of Agora Policy, at the policy conversation held on 22 November 2023 in Abuja.