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By Ifetayo Idowu and Faridha Salihu-Lukman | Last Wednesday, 22 November 2023, Agora Policy and partners convened a policy conversation in Abuja to explore the intersection between climate change, energy transition, and the green economy in Nigeria. The event also featured the public presentation of Agora Policy's latest report, entitled "Climate Change and Social-Economic Development in Nigeria," produced with the support of MacArthur Foundation, also the sponsor of the policy conversation.
From the remarks, goodwill messages, panel discussion, special interventions and the question-and-answer session, many ideas were offered and discussed about the state of climate change awareness and interventions in Nigeria and what the country needs to do to minimise the risks and maximise the opportunities of the global transition to cleaner energy.
Below are five of the key insights from the deliberation.
- Denial and defiance define national attitude to climate change in Nigeria
There was a clear consensus among the speakers that evidence abounds that climate change negatively impacts Nigeria through different channels and that it increases Nigeria’s exposure to hunger, poverty, diseases, and conflicts. There was also an agreement that the toll of climate change on the country will get worse if urgent action is not taken. However, that sense of urgency is hardly seen even within official circles in the country. Mr. Waziri Adio, the Executive Director of Agora Policy, said the national attitude on climate change “oscillates between denial and indifference.” According to Mr. Tayo Aduloju, the CEO-designate of the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), there is another dimension: defiance. "This defiance comes from perspective that climate change is not Africa's fault, not Nigeria's fault. Therefore, ignore it.”There was an agreement that these attitudes are not useful and need to change for the country to adequately adapt to climatic changes and appropriately position itself to benefit from energy transition.
- Climate change is a major, not marginal, challenge for Nigeria
In his presentation, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke emphasized that it is wrong to see climate change only from the lens of the environment. He submitted that it is more useful to see climate change as the key development challenge of the country. He stated: "Climate change is not a marginal environmental problem out there. But it is a major, perhaps the defining, socio-economic, geopolitical, demographic challenge facing Nigeria today." Other speakers echoed the same sentiment, calling for more urgent and bolder actions, and the need to mainstream climate change into national development plans.
- The poor and the vulnerable could be further disadvantaged
Various speakers argued that climate change imposes a disproportionate burden on the poor, the vulnerable and the marginalised and could further deepen inequality in terms of energy access and income in the country. Dr. Kole Shettima of MacArthur Foundation, Mrs. Funke Baruwa of Ford Foundation and Ms. Tengi George-Ikoli all made this point in various ways, and they all urged that climate policies be designed and implemented in an inclusive and collaborative manner, with special attention paid to ensuring that policies and actions bridge and not widen inequality in society.
- Showing benefits critical to optimising gains of the green economy
Climate change is not all bad news as the transition to cleaner energy offers Nigeria and others opportunities for improving energy access, creating jobs and increasing economic growth. According to the World Bank Country Director, Dr. Shubham Chaudhuri, Nigeria needs to strike a delicate but necessary balance between improving energy access and aligning with the shift towards a low-carbon world. For Mr. Abubakar Suleiman, it is important to demonstrate to various stakeholders that embracing renewable energy will help to save cost, increase profits, create job and grow the economy. “One language that every understands is their bottom-line,” he said, emphasising the need for government to stimulate demand for renewables and to invest in the alternative energy eco-system so that Nigeria can benefit from every part of the value-chain. For example, he argued, Nigeria should not just be interested in using solar panels but also in making them too. Ms. George-Ikoli reinforced this point by advocating that Nigeria should be keen on processing its green minerals, rather than just exporting them raw.
- Simplification should be an article of faith
Awareness about climate change is very low in Nigeria. Some of the speakers reckon that this is because the language adopted in communicating the issue is too technical for most people. There was a call to simplify the language and frame climate change in a way many Nigerians can understand and relate with. “We need to find a different nomenclature for the world climate change maybe then it will make more sense to policymakers and to the ordinary people," said Mrs. Baruwa. Dr. Shettima put it this way: "When you talk to Nigerians about climate change, most people don’t know what it is. But when you talk to Nigerians about flooding, they know what flooding is. When you talk to Nigerians about drought, they know what that means." Having a clear understanding of the meaning, impacts and opportunities of climate change will be critical to achieving an all-of-society and a coordinated approach that most speakers agreed is needed to move the needle on climate action in Nigeria.
Read more: Five Takeaways from the Event on ‘Nigeria, Climate Change and the Green Economy’
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Let’s start with the obvious: climate change still does not enjoy the prominence that it deserves in Nigeria. Yes, there are some individuals, organisations and government agencies that are making a strong case for, and designing and implementing, consequential climate interventions in the country. We salute them. We thank them.
But the sad, inconvenient truth is that climate change still does not rank very high on our policy agenda and in our popular imagination. Both in official circles and among the populace, climate issues are not seen as really important and urgent. Our national attitude oscillates between denial and indifference.
Most of our people, including highly-placed government officials, see climate change as other people’s problems or an issue that is only for tree-huggers and environmentalists, or something that should bother only those who have the luxury of not wrestling with hunger and other existential matters—as we say in Pidgin, “somtin for pipu wey don belleful.”
And because we are a people of fantastic faith, we simply think and believe that the negative impacts of climate change will never be our portion.
But the burdens of shifts in climatic conditions are already our portion. They are all around us. The rise in temperature, the irregular raining patterns, the near perennial flooding across the country, the increasing threats of desertification and gully and coastal erosions, and others already have deep, negative impacts on food production, food security and food inflation, and on water, on health and productivity, on energy and infrastructure, and on the conflicts that continue to multiply partly on account of vanishing natural resources.
Whether we want to accept it or not, whether we think it is other people’s or our own headache or not, whether we think it is our portion or not—climate change is already exerting a big toll on the things we consider critical and urgent. It is already here and now, not a matter of the hereafter. It is not what we can simply wish away by faith.
And because of its multi-dimensional, ramifying nature and multiplier effects, climate change is the most existential threat that we face already. And it is projected to get significantly worse within a few years. This silent crisis of today is likely to escalate into a catastrophic one soon—unless we act urgently, intentionally, and boldly.
There are additional reasons for greater urgency. We are a resource-intensive but ironically energy-poor country. The global transition away from fossil fuels poses grave threats to government revenue at all levels and to our capacity to provide the much-needed power for homes and industries.
Our capacity to fight poverty and achieve the SDGs and to increase national productivity and competitiveness may be further compromised. The transition away from fossil fuels may appear paused for now in the aftermath of Russia-Ukraine. But it won’t be paused for long.
In a related but significant vein, the energy transition is creating a new economy, an intense scramble for critical minerals already spurning instability around us, and a strategic positioning by countries to ensure that their interests are well served in the emerging economic order.
Where are we as a country in all of this? That’s a question for all of us to answer.
But let’s get this straight: we cannot afford to be a bit player in the emerging order except we are content with holding the short end of the stick or happy to be further consigned to the margins of existence.
We therefore need to see climate change as the central development challenge for our country, not in the future, but today.
And we need more than a conversation or the commitment of the converted. We need an all-of-society approach. From political authorisers to policy wonks to the ordinary persons on the streets and in the homes, we all have roles to play, and we all need to act differently.
*Excerpt from the welcome address by Waziri Adio, Founder/Executive Director of Agora Policy, at the policy conversation held on 22 November 2023 in Abuja.
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Climate change is increasing hunger, poverty, disease-burden, migration, conflict and insecurity in Nigeria. It is damaging infrastructure, changing Nigeria’s coastlines, fuelling desertification, producing water scarcity, facilitating erosion and resulting in the loss of revenue for states and the national government. The total economic cost of climate change to Nigeria was estimated at $100 billionby 2020 and is projected to rise to $460 billion by 2050. Climate change may also cause Nigeria to lose trillions of dollars in stranded assets.
With these far-reaching negative effects on Nigeria’s human and natural systems, climate change has the potential to jeopardise the country’s economic development and alter its geographical, social, and political trajectory for decades or centuries. Some of the repercussions of climate change on the nation may be irreversible. Therefore, it should be evident that climate change is not a marginal or peripheral issue that the government and the people of Nigeria can take lightly.
Even though climate change poses significant threats to Nigeria’s economic development, it also presents an opportunity to further diversify the economy, expand the country’s energy portfolio, address energy security concerns, and increase global economic competitiveness. To transform climate change from a significant threat into an opportunity requires deliberate planning supported by immediate, bold and courageous action.
There is evidence that successive Nigerian governments recognise the enormous threat of climate change and the necessity for action, as indicated by a plethora of policy declarations, documents, and a national climate change law. However, actual action is still behind schedule. The government has not yet established a clear roadmap for the effective and comprehensive implementation of key policies and commitments, and there are no clear budgetary provisions for their implementation.
Transitioning to a green economy is a complex endeavour that requires meticulous planning, stakeholder participation, and a dedication to sustainable development. Leveraging climate action to pursue economic development in Nigeria is not only a viable but essential strategy. Incorporating climate considerations into economic development strategies can result in more inclusive and sustainable growth.
Such a move can provide Nigeria with excellent opportunities to construct a climate-resilient economy that not only promotes growth and reduces poverty, but also creates good green jobs and contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental sustainability. By proactively addressing the issue of stranded assets, Nigeria will also be able to position itself for a more resilient and prosperous future.
The emphasis should be on finding methods to industrialise and transition without substantially increasing the country’s emission profile. To accomplish this, Nigeria will need to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies that considerably enhance its macroeconomic stability, economic transformation and job creation, while minimising the negative impacts of climate change on development.
The global transition from a high-carbon economy to a low-carbon economy is already well underway through a multitude of international and national initiatives many of which are led by high-polluting industrialised nations that are keen to transform their economies and position their countries as net beneficiaries of the new global green economy. These strategies and investments will inevitably alter the global political, economic and geopolitical landscape, producing winners and losers across the world.
Whether Nigeria will swim or sink in the face of climate change and the global green growth transition will depend on its willingness to take urgent action now and re-align its national development strategies towards a low-carbon economic future.
*Excerpted from the latest Agora Policy report titled “Climate Change and Socio-Economic Development in Nigeria,” authored by Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, Professor Emmanuel Oladipo, Ms. Ifeoma Malo and Dr. Fola Aina.
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By Ifetayo Idowu | Corruption has for long been a pervasive issue in Nigeria. It has had devastating consequences for the country’s economy, security and social relations. Also, the scourge of corruption has reinforced negative patterns of poverty and inequality in both public and private sectors.
Over time, several measures have been implemented by different administrations to combat corruption in the country. While some of these measures have made some dent, most have not had the desired impact. The problem persists. Nigeria is still perceived as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, ranking 150 out of 180 countries in the 2022 Corruption Perception Index of Transparency International (TI).
Last week, Agora Policy released a report titled “Imperative of Strengthening Nigeria’s Transparency and Accountability Measures”i. Produced with the support of MacArthur Foundation, the report x-rays 16 anticorruption measures in the country and advocates for sustaining and strengthening Nigeria’s transparency and accountability measures. It concludes with this evocative line: “whether now or in the future, Nigeria needs more transparency and accountability, not less.”
This intervention builds on and fleshes out one of the recommendations of the timely report: the need to deploy insights from behavioural science to effectively tackle the values, attitudes and narratives that enable corruption in the country. In short, the need to nudge Nigerians away from the costly and destructive practice of corruption.
The Unbearable, Multidimensional Costs of Corruption
To begin with, we need to establish that the economic and social costs of corruption in Nigeria are extensive. According to PwCii, the cost of corruption in Nigeria is estimated to reach nearly $2,000 per person in 2023. The organisation also estimated that, if not properly dealt with, corruption could cost Nigeria up to 37% of GDP by 2030.
It was also reported that between 2009 and 2020iii, Nigeria lost 619.7 million barrels of crude oil valued at N16.25 trillion to theft and sabotage, which are forms of corruption. In contrast, the combined allocation for healthcare and education was N6.79 trillion less than the amount lost to these forms of corruption for the same period.
The social cost of corruption can be seen in how corruption perpetuates inequalities and povertyiv. It has a disproportionate impact on the poor and the most vulnerable members of society. It reduces the amount of money available for job creation, relief activities and government’s poverty alleviation programmes.
It also increases the cost of social services, including health and education, and reduces access of vulnerable members of society to these services. This reflects in unbuilt, poorly-built and poorly-equipped schools, ill-equipped and understaffed hospitals, and poorly-built roads which increase transaction costs and accidents and reduce human welfare. Corruption also creates a system where justice and safety are not prioritised leading to safety laws and due process being ignored and leading to unavoidable deaths.
Corruption has also led to a breakdown of social capital in Nigeria. Social capital allows a group of people to work together effectively to achieve a common purpose. Without it, society experiences a decline in social cohesion and an increase in crime, among many other things. This is bad for nation building.
In summary, corruption is not a cost-free or a victimless crime.
The Nudge Approach to Anticorruption
The gravity and the cost of corruption make it imperative for Nigeria to constantly look for more effective ways of taming the scourge. One relatively new approach that can be engaged in the fight against corruption in Nigeria is nudging, an approach popularised by Cass Sunstein, a Harvard University professor, and Richard Taler, a University of Chicago professor.
Nudging involves using insights from behavioural science to design and drive campaigns for changes in norms, values, attitudes and behaviours to achieve desirable outcomes. It can be an effective tool in the fight against corruption. Even though the act of nudging itself is not a new thing, using it as an anti-corruption tool is relatively newv.
Nudging can be used as a tool to change the context in which decisions are made. It can be used to influence the way people act, without constraining their choices. In this way, it can be used as a supplementary tool in fighting corruption. Nudging is a subtle and non-coercive method that influences people’s behaviour in a positive way. It involves using indirect suggestions to influence people’s behaviour and decision making.vi
Nudging can be used in many ways to fight corruption. One way nudging can be used in Nigeria is to fight prevalent mentality such as “public money is everybody’s money” which Nigerians use to justify taking and misallocating public money; “where you work is where you eat” which people use to justify treating their employers unjustly. These sayings help people reinforce bad behaviours. In the same way, anti-corruption slogans can be employed as a tool to help shape people’s opinions about corruption, sayings things such as “keep nothing under the table, except your shoes” or “Fight corruption. Bring progression” can be employed. The first expression reinforces the message that anything that cannot be done in everyone's view is corrupt and the other talks about the damaging effects of corruption. Nudging can be used to influence mindset.
Similarly, nudging can be used as a tool reminding people to act honestly. Like telling a child “thank you” for doing something they haven’t done as a reminder, people need to be reminded to act honestly. This can be done either directly by reminding people to do the right thing because their actions have consequences before meetings start, or by using more subtle means like making financial decisions during certain periods of prosperity, like after payday.
Directly reminding people of the consequences of their actions or inactions is another way of nudging. One way this can be done in Nigeria is by humanising corruption, drawing a direct line between a father’s poor level of education and his poverty or the connection between an amputee and poor state of infrastructure and not-upholding safety measures. Nudging can be used to promote more positive choices.
Nudging can also be used as a tool that incentivises the preferred behaviour. Public workers can be awarded certain benefits for being transparent. The Agora Policy report stated that in Nigeria’s history only eight public officials have publicly declared their assets. Even though this act promotes transparency, no applause or recognition was given to these individuals. There is nothing to distinguish them from the people who act otherwise. In using nudging as a tool to incentivise the preferred behaviour, wrong and bad behaviour must also be punished. This is because when people see their peers getting away with violations, they are likely to join the bandwagon. Nudging can be used as a tool that informs and empowers people.
In conclusion, nudging presents a promising approach to tackling corruption in Nigeria. It offers a psychological approach in that it deals with the root and behavioural causes of corruption and promotes a culture of transparency and accountability. By complementing traditional anti-corruption measures with nudging, Nigeria can effectively reduce the costs of corruption on its development and on its citizens. This will ultimately lead to a more equitable and prosperous country.
*Ifetayo is a policy and data analyst at Agora Policy
Footnotes
[i]Agora Policy No.4 (2023) Imperative of Strengthening Nigeria's Transparency and Accountability Measures. Available at: https://agorapolicy.org/report/
[ii]PWC (2016) “Impact of Corruption on Nigeria's Economy.” PricewaterhouseCoopers Limited. Available at: https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/publications/impact-of-corruption-on-nigerias-economy.html.
[iii]Aduloju, Bunmi (2022) “NEITI: Nigeria Lost N16.25trn to Oil Theft, Sabotage in 12 Years.” The Cable, December 15. Available at:https://www.thecable.ng/neiti-nigeria-lost-n16-25trn-to-oil-theft-sabotage-in-12-years
[iv]World Bank (no date) Combating Corruption, The World Bank. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/governance/brief/anti-corruption
[v]Slota, A. (2018) The subtle science of nudging anti-corruption, Palladium. Palladium. Available at: https://thepalladiumgroup.com/news/The-subtle-science-of-nudging-anti-corruption
[vi]Mullet, T. (2022) “What are the advantages and disadvantages of nudging?” Warwick Business School, 14 February. Available at: https://www.wbs.ac.uk/news/what-are-the-advantages-and-disadvantages-of-nudging/