Recent progress on food prices should not distract Nigerian policymakers from the hard work of sustainably addressing the country’s longstanding challenge with food security, a challenge exacerbated by the administration’s fiscal and monetary reforms 

By Ayobami Ayorinde and Oluchi Nkeonye | At the outset of the current administration, decisive measures were taken to address some of the structural problems that had deeply affected Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability. President Bola Tinubu declared the removal of petrol subsidy on his very first day in office. Two weeks after, the central bank floated the Naira, the national currency. These reforms had immediate negative impact on food prices. The price of petrol surged from ₦185 per litre in May 2023 to over ₦1000 in 2024, driving up the cost of transporting food from farms to consumers' tables. Exchange rate liberalisation also made imported agricultural inputs such as fertilisers, seeds, pesticides, and machinery more expensive for the farmers. Then, interest rates were sharply hiked to fight inflation, making borrowing and access to bank loans more difficult. By June 2024, food inflation had hit 40.9%, the highest in over a decade^[1].  

For a country already grappling with high poverty incidence, these reforms further deepened existing vulnerabilities. Before the reforms, Nigerian households spent about 60% of their income on food^[2]. With the surge in food prices, this share has likely increased further and placed a disproportionate burden on low-income households, who now have to spend a larger share of their earnings on food. A 2024 Cadre Harmonisé assessment (see Fig.2) found that between October and December 2024, at least 25.1 million Nigerians were in the crisis-to-emergency phase of food insecurity^[3]. This number was projected to rise to about 33 million people during the 2025 lean season. The most affected populations include internally displaced persons (IDPs), particularly in states such as Borno, Zamfara, and Sokoto; while states like Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, and Niger also recorded over a million people in critical conditions.

The broader picture of Nigeria’s food security state is also concerning. Nigeria ranked 115th out of 129 countries on the 2025 Global Hunger Index^[4] with a score of 32.8, which is classified as a serious level of hunger. In the 2022 Global Food Security Index^[5], Nigeria ranked 107th of 133 countries with an overall score of 42 (see Fig. 3), lagging behind countries like Niger, Sudan, and Venezuela. Particularly worrying is that Nigeria placed last in the world in terms of food affordability.

Food should not be a luxury, but when prices rise, it pushes vulnerable households deeper into hunger and poverty, and forces more people into dietary poverty and malnutrition. This is evidenced by the 45.4 million Nigerians reported to be undernourished between 2022 and 2024 by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)^[6], as seen in Fig 4 below. This is up from 20.7 million people between 2012 and 2014, an increase of 119%. 

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) further shows just how steep the food price increase has been. Between November 2023 and November 2025, the prices of major food items increased from about 53% to as high as 165%, as illustrated in Table 1. Staple foods recorded significant jumps: brown beans rose by 84%, imported rice by 95%, broken rice (Ofada) by 135%, and yams by 163%^[7]. 

These increases paint a clear picture. Over time, food is becoming less affordable, and the purchasing power of many Nigerians is being eroded as a result. Although recent figures suggest a slowdown in food inflation, which is commendable. But this does not necessarily translate to lower prices. It simply means that prices are rising at a slower pace, not that they are falling. Moreover, tackling food inflation is not the same as addressing food insecurity. Nigeria has been a food insecure country for some time, despite its implied comparative advantage in food production. Policymakers need to beyond temporary relief measures and focus more on far-reaching interventions that will ensure sustainable availability and affordability of food in the country. They need to identify and tackle the binding constraints to food security in Africa’s most populous country and elevate food security to a prime place on the economic development and national security agenda. 

The Root of Nigeria's Food Crisis

The intensity of food price shock from these reforms occurred to a great extent because the reforms landed on a foundation that was broken. Nigeria was already struggling to feed itself before any of these reforms were implemented. For years, the conflict between farmers and herders across the northern states had been hollowing out the country's food production capacity. According to a 2020 report, up to 70,000 hectares of arable farmland were abandoned in Borno, Katsina, Taraba, Plateau, and other states in the north.^[8] Then the 2022 floods happened– the worst Nigeria had seen since 2012. According to a survey by the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS), the floods caused approximately ₦700 billion worth of damage to the agricultural sector.^[9] Compounding all of this was the Russia-Ukraine War, which had been upsetting global food markets since February 2022 (as seen in Figure 1). Nigeria, as one of the world’s largest wheat importers, relies heavily on wheat from Russia, Ukraine and other Black Sea exporters. As a result, when the Russia‑Ukraine war tightened global supplies, the prices of bread, noodles, confectionaries and other wheat‑based staples that millions of Nigerians depend on rose sharply.^[10]

Beneath all of these shocks were structural problems that had been left unaddressed for decades. Nigeria's food production had long been below domestic demand, with the country relying on $10 billion^[11] in annual food imports to fill the gap. Persistent structural issues like poor road networks, inadequate storage facilities, and unreliable electricity continue to hinder efficient transportation, storage, and processing. Interstate levies add to transportation costs, and high fuel prices further drive up the cost of moving food across the country. Food production remains largely seasonal, as farming still depends heavily on rainfall. This creates a mismatch between supply and the year-round demand for food. At the same time, crop productivity is relatively low. Nigeria is the world’s largest producer of yams and cassava, the fifth-largest producer of sorghum, and the 14th-largest producer of maize. Yet, despite this strong standing in output, the average yields per hectare in Nigeria lag behind those of other leading producers as seen in Fig 5-8 below.

Nigeria's restrictive trade policies have also contributed to food inflation. A number of food items, like beef and refined vegetable oils, are prohibited from importation^[12]. And beyond outright bans, Nigeria also imposes high import duties in strategic sectors to protect and boost the competitiveness of local industries. These tariffs for agriculture are particularly steep: wheat attracts an 85% rate, sugar 75%, rice 70%, and tomato paste 50%^[13]. Added to that was the restricted access to foreign exchange for food imports by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which further tightened supply and drove up food prices before it was removed in October 2022. These reforms only exposed the fragile state of Nigeria’s food security. 

Government’s Interventions and Mixed Results 

Encouragingly, the past year has brought a measure of relief. Food prices have been relatively stable and less volatile than in previous years. This improvement has been partly driven by the government's deliberate policy actions to curb rising food costs. In July 2023, President Tinubu declared a state of emergency on food security and rolled out a broad intervention plan aimed at “improving food availability, affordability, and sustainability, while curbing rising food inflation.” As part of the response, the government proposed a mix of short- and long-term measures. This included the free distribution of fertilisers and grains to farmers and vulnerable households as a stopgap measure. The plan also proposed the establishment of a National Commodity Board to help monitor food prices and manage a strategic food reserve. To strengthen production capacity, efforts were made to enhance coordination between the Ministries of Agriculture and Water Resources, particularly to expand irrigation and enable year-round farming. There was also a plan to beef up security and to prioritise agricultural expansion through the activation of 500,000 hectares of arable land and the development of river basins. The strategy also focused on boosting export revenues from agricultural products and improving trade facilitation by working with the Nigerian Customs Service to eliminate bottlenecks. 

A year later, in July 2024, the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, announced the government's plan to import 500,000 metric tonnes of wheat and maize to shore up the strategic grain reserve and the suspension of tariffs for 150 days on imported rice, wheat, maize and cowpeas. The government also disclosed its intention to distribute 20 trucks of rice to each of the 36 states and the FCT as part of palliatives to cushion the effect of rising food prices. The result of some of these interventions is evident in a year-on-year slowdown in food inflation, and more recently, a month-on-month decline in food prices.

While some of the policies, particularly the removal of import tariffs and importation of certain food items, have contributed to stabilising food prices and improving food availability, many local farmers have expressed concern that the influx of cheaper imported food has undercut domestic production, making it harder for them to compete^[14]. They complain that lower market prices have reduced their profit margins and, in severe cases, discouraged investment in local production. Notably, the essence of trade lies in allowing countries to specialise in what they produce most efficiently while relying on others for goods that they are less competitive in. In the context of food, this means a country like Nigeria can import staples that it struggles to produce in sufficient quantities from countries with higher productivity, thereby ensuring a more stable and affordable food supply. Nigeria is a top producer of crops such as yams, cassava, and cowpea as shown earlier, but the imposition of high tariffs on key food items like sugar and wheat raises important questions, particularly when domestic production remains insufficient to meet national demand. 

Rather than viewing imports as a threat to local agriculture, they should be seen as a complementary tool that helps to bridge supply gaps, stabilise prices, and protect consumers during periods of shortage. A more balanced approach would involve selectively reducing tariffs on staple foods where there is a clear domestic production deficit while simultaneously strengthening local production capacity. This allows the government to ease immediate supply pressures without undermining its long-term agricultural development goals. Findings from a World Bank paper^[15] titled “Protectionism, Evasion and Household Welfare- Evidence from Nigeria’s Import Bans” show that import bans do not actually improve welfare. The paper noted that import bans do not fully work because they are not fully enforced. When bans are introduced, informal trade actually increases, and people still find ways to bring in banned items through smuggling. Also, the paper stated that, on the average, banning imports raised prices in Nigeria by 9.9%. Most importantly, import bans reduce real household incomes and make people poorer because many Nigerians are net consumers. 

Policy Recommendations

While notable progress has been made in stemming food inflation, the government needs to do more to address the current underlying challenges that hinder food security in the country. Some recommendations include:

• Enhance Agricultural Productivity through Research and Development: At the heart of the country’s food crisis is productivity. Nigerians put a lot of effort into food production but output per hectare remains low compared to other leading producers. Closing this gap requires a deliberate and sustained focus on research and development (R&D) especially in developing, testing, and scaling high-yield and climate-resilient seedlings that match Nigeria’s soil and environmental conditions. With at least 16 agricultural research institutions in Nigeria focused on different crops, alongside other international research institutes, stronger government support and coordination is needed to ensure that innovations move from research labs to farmers’ fields. This also requires an expansive corps of rural extension agents deployed directly into farming communities, who can translate these innovations into practical guidance that farmers can immediately apply. Just as Brazil did when it rejuvenated its nationwide network of agricultural extension professionals in the 1970s to bring new techniques to farmers, Nigeria must strengthen its extension services to ensure that farmers have both access to these improved inputs and the confidence to use them. Improving productivity also involves modernising the way farming is done. Increased investment in mechanisation can ease labour constraints and speed up farm operations while the adoption of technology using data-driven tools and climate-smart practices like precision agriculture can help farmers make more informed decisions about planting, irrigation, and input use.
• Improve the Agricultural Value Chain: Improving what happens after food is produced is just as important as increasing how much is produced. Across Nigeria’s agricultural value chain, inefficiencies continue to undermine the gains made on the farms. A significant portion of harvested food never reaches consumers because it is lost along the way due to post-harvest losses, poor storage, weak logistics and limited processing capacity. However, when farmers have access to proper storage facilities, they are able to extend the shelf life of their produce, reduce post-harvest losses, and avoid being forced to sell immediately at unfavourable prices. This not only cuts waste but it also helps smoothen supply over time. This benefits farmers through higher and more stable incomes, and consumers gain access to more diverse and affordable food options throughout the year. Efforts should also be made to improve rural roads and enhance inter-regional transportation. Improving road and rail infrastructure is essential for connecting rural farming communities with regional markets and processing facilities. The government should also remove barriers that hinder production to consumption, such as the removal of unofficial levies that increase transportation costs. 
• Review Import Tariffs: There is also a strong case for rethinking trade restrictions such as import bans. For example, tariffs on food items with low domestic production like sugar and wheat should be lowered or removed entirely by the government. While they are often meant to protect local farmers, they also end up limiting supply and eventually push prices higher for consumers. In many cases, they also encourage informal trade, which makes regulation even harder. Allowing for more balanced and well-managed imports, especially when local supply is low, can help keep markets stable without necessarily harming local producers.
• Expand Irrigation Systems: Seasonality remains a challenge due to heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture. A promising solution to this challenge is the adoption of solar-powered irrigation systems. Harnessing renewable solar energy will allow farmers to reliably water their crops throughout the year, enable year-round farming for certain crops and reduce dependence on rainfall which can sometimes be unpredictable. Expanding irrigation systems would also reduce the impact of droughts and create a more consistent income for farmers throughout the year. 
• Address the Nation’s Security Challenges:No discussion of food security in Nigeria is complete without addressing security challenges in farming communities. Persistent attacks and displacement in key agricultural regions, especially in the north, continue to disrupt production and discourage investment. Strengthening security presence in vulnerable areas and improving intelligence between local communities and security agencies will be critical. 
• Strengthen Macroeconomic Stability: Finally, improving the country’s macroeconomic stability is essential for sustaining the current food disinflation. Exchange rate stability plays a very critical role in preventing sudden price surges and maintaining affordability. A stable currency will help to keep import costs, especially for food, agricultural inputs, and machinery, from rising unpredictably, thereby easing pressure on domestic prices.

Conclusion

The reforms by the government have yielded noticeable macro-economic gains. In some instances, the increase in food prices has slowed down. But the government must not be distracted by this as food insecurity remains a key challenge for the country with millions of people, particularly in rural areas still vulnerable to shocks. Access to available and affordable food remains the utmost priority for the average Nigerian and addressing this requires the government to resolve the structural constraints that undermine food security in the contry. The benefits of doing so extend beyond only improving food availability and affordability. It will create more jobs across the agricultural value chain, enhance livelihoods, reduce hunger, improve social stability and ultimately drive more inclusive and sustained economic growth for the country.

^[1] https://microdata.nigerianstat.gov.ng/index.php/catalog/154

^[2]https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/617577-nigerians-spend-over-half-of-their-earnings-on-food-worst-globally-report.html

^[3] https://fscluster.org/nigeria/document/cadre-harmonise-results-food-and

^[4] https://www.globalhungerindex.org/nigeria.html

^[5] https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/project/food-security-index/explore-countries/nigeria

^[6] https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#country/159

^[7] https://microdata.nigerianstat.gov.ng/index.php/catalog/162

^[8] https://guardian.ng/opinion/as-northern-farmers-abandon-food-production/

^[9]https://naerls.gov.ng/2023/02/naerls-presents-report-of-the-impact-of-2022-flooding-on-agriculture-to-honourable-minister-fmard/

^[10]https://www.ifpri.org/blog/russia-ukraine-crisis-presents-threats-nigerias-food-security-potential-opportunities/

^[11]https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/africa/nigeria-spends-10bln-annually-on-food-imports-fg-qalau6uh

^[12] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-prohibited-and-restricted-imports

^[13] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-import-tariffs

^[14] https://dailytrust.com/farmers-fg-disagree-over-drop-in-food-prices/

^[15]https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/09982transportation2209022521951/pdf/IDU-d665f0cb-a8f0-4135-bd25-fab189d71715.pdalsovary harvestsf