By Ayobami Ayorinde | The stakeholder dialogue on “Sustaining and Deepening Economic Reforms in Nigeria” brought together over 200 participants drawn from government, private sector, academia, civil society, and development institutions.

Held on 12th March 2026 at the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, the event was organised by Agora Policy in collaboration with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and with support from the Nigeria Economic Stability and Transformation programme, an initiative of the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). The dialogue provided a platform for key stakeholders to explore practical pathways for sustaining and improving ongoing reforms in Nigeria. Below are some of the key takeaways from the event.

Economic Reforms Were Required, Not Optional

A general consensus at the dialogue was that the economic reforms taken by the President Bola Tinubu administration were necessary, although the sequencing was debatable. The Special Adviser to the President on Finance and the Economy, Mrs. Sanyade Okoli, explained that the reforms were introduced early on because political capital is highest at the beginning of an administration when decisive actions are more feasible. She noted that it would have been impossible to start the reforms at a time as now. The DG of Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr. Chinyere Almona, also noted that the private sector had long advocated for petrol subsidy removal. On his part, the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr. Mohammed Sani Abdullahi, emphasized that the reforms were not optional but necessary. He described the situation as “a crisis with no real alternative, where delaying action could have worsened outcomes significantly.” Dr. Samer Matta, Senior Economist at the World Bank, also added that the economy was in a critical state. According to him, “net reserves stood at just $700–$800 million in 2023 and debt service-to-revenue across the federation reached 102% in 2022.” This meant that for every Naira collected, more had to be borrowed just to service existing debt. He further said that “without action, Nigeria risked a crisis similar to what we saw in Sri Lanka, where limited reserves constrained imports and disrupted the economy”. Dr. Hussaini Abdu, Country Director CARE, however argued that implementing multiple reforms simultaneously amounted to an “overdose,” with severe social consequences. But Dr. Matta noted that gradual reforms might not have worked because Nigeria’s economic condition at the time required a “shock therapy” given the country’s very low reserves and unsustainable fiscal metrics.

Social Protection Must Be Proactive and Well-Targeted

Dr. Abdu stated that while it may be difficult to argue against the economics of the reforms more attentions should have been paid to the social implications of the reforms, especially the impact on the poor. He submitted that social protection should not be reactive or done as an afterthought, arguing that social protection should be used proactively to prevent shocks from the reforms made and not introduced after they have already created hardship. His remarks highlight that strong safety nets are essential complements to economic reforms, especially during periods of adjustment. He stressed the importance of robust and credible social registries to improve the efficiency of government interventions and ensure these interventions reach the most vulnerable effectively. Matta of the World Bank echoed this, noting that while reforms were necessary, cash transfers and other safety nets should have been deployed immediately for citizens receive support at the same time reforms take effect, not months later. He encouraged the government to improve on it in the future. Speaking on the same issue, Mrs. Okoli acknowledged setbacks and noted that while cash transfers initially began, there were concerns about whether funds were reaching the right beneficiaries, which led to a pause and redesign of the cash transfer scheme. She highlighted the difficult trade-off between speed, scale, and accuracy and explained that the government chose to prioritise reaching many people accurately, even if it meant delays, while also moving towards digitisation. She added that the government is aware that macroeconomic improvements must translate into tangible benefits for Nigerians and that efforts are being channelled into critical sectors like agriculture and power. She explained that beyond social protection programmes, the government has rolled out a range of initiatives aimed at improving the welfare of ordinary Nigerians like education financing schemes (NELFUND) and clean energy initiatives like CNG. She also highlighted ongoing efforts such as the implementation of new tax laws, supported by extensive stakeholder engagement to improve understanding and compliance. She equally pointed to reforms aimed at increasing transparency in oil revenue flows and improving efficiency at the ports through the national single window system, which is expected to boost trade and job creation.

Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth Should be the Core of the Reform Agenda

Dr. Matta emphasized that the central objective of Nigeria’s reform agenda should be poverty reduction, which he described as the guiding “north star” for policy. He identified two key priorities to achieve this: sustaining the fight against inflation (which disproportionately affects the poor) and accelerating economic growth. He described inflation as a “tax on the poor” and stressed the need to bring it down to single digits to meaningfully reduce poverty. He also noted government’s priority should be to accelerate GDP growth to between 5% and 7% and ensure that the composition of growth evolves into more job-creating sectors, especially agriculture and services. He outlined a dual approach for growth. First, the public sector must play a stronger role in providing essential services particularly in areas such as security, education, health, and social protection where private sector participation is limited. Second is the importance of creating an enabling environment for the private sector as the government alone cannot meet Nigeria’s vast infrastructure and development needs. He recommended reforms in trade, power, access to finance, and digital infrastructure to unlock private investment. On his part, Dr. Abdullahi also emphasized that the priority of the CBN is to sustain the current stability in a way that drives inclusive growth. He noted that improvements in livelihoods depend on job creation, booming industries, and rising incomes. He explained that the reforms in the banking sector, particularly recapitalisation, are aimed at strengthening banks’ ability to support businesses, while development finance efforts are being repositioned to provide affordable credit to SMEs. He also clarified that current high interest rates are a temporary response to economic shocks and are expected to ease as inflation declines. Mrs. Okoli added that the goal of the government is to unlock growth by improving access to finance for businesses and ensuring that economic expansion translates into real improvements in people’s livelihoods.

Investment Requires Macroeconomic Credibility

According to Dr. Abdullahi, the priority of the current leadership of CBN when it came on board was to restore credibility, clear FX liabilities, and stabilise the macroeconomic environment so as to lay the foundation for broader recovery. He explained the FX backlog of $7 billion that had gone unpaid for up to two years effectively made the apex bank a defaulting institution and severely damaged Nigeria’s credibility and investor confidence. He noted that this situation meant Nigeria could not credibly attract investment as potential investors were wary of an economy whose central bank was unable to meet existing obligations. As such, clearing this backlog was critical to restoring trust and reopening access to international capital and engagement. He said these efforts have begun to yield results through improved FX inflows, rising reserves, renewed investor confidence and declining inflation. He pointed to the consistent expansion in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) as a signal growing business activity and investor confidence. Mrs. Okoli buttressed this point and added that attracting both domestic and foreign investment requires a stable macroeconomic environment and improved infrastructure, including power, roads, and digital connectivity. 

Private Sector Needs Targeted Support to Drive Growth

Dr. Almona of LCCI stressed that businesses, especially SMEs, are currently struggling with high energy costs, tight financing conditions, and weak demand as a result of the reforms. She highlighted that although indicators like reserves and investor confidence have improved, these gains have not sufficiently trickled down, especially to SMEs facing high costs. She noted that without targeted support, the private sector may struggle to translate the reforms into jobs and inclusive growth. She therefore called for the savings from the reforms to be reinvested in power infrastructure and human capital. She also called for complementary policies especially affordable and accessible credit for small businesses to help ease pressure on the business environment. She noted that without this, Nigeria cannot fully benefit from opportunities such as intra-African trade or domestic production policies.

Reforms Should be Better Communicated

One of the areas of consensus at the dialogue is that government’s communication on the reforms fell short. Dr. Hussaini Abdu or CARE international reminded the gathering that even military governments engaged better with the citizens on proposed reforms. He cited the nationwide debate that predated the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) of the late 1980s. Mrs. Okoli, the presidential adviser, acknowledged that the government could have done more early on to explain what was being done and why. She also clarified that government decisions were not driven by a need for external validation, but rather by data and empirical evidence. Dr. Almona also raised concerns about the limited transparency in policy communication and the lack of visible accountability for inefficiencies. The report presented by Dr. Mohammed Shuaibu recommended an enhanced communication of reforms. The study encouraged the government to implement transparent, empathetic and continuous dialogue to rebuild trust and social capital. These suggestions are based on the premise that citizen understanding and buy-in are critical to reform success. 

Coordination Across All Levels of Government Is Essential

Dr. Matta, the World Bank economist. highlighted the complexity of Nigeria’s fiscal structure and noted the need for better coordination across federal, state, and local governments, especially as subnational governments now account for a larger share of public spending. He emphasized that improving revenue mobilisation and spending efficiency at all levels is key to delivering public goods. Dr. Abdu on his part highlighted a fundamental contradiction in Nigeria’s governance expectations. He noted that while citizens advocate for a strong federal system with empowered states, there is also widespread distrust of state and local governments which has led to an overreliance on the Federal Government over the years. He also criticised the misallocation of responsibilities, pointing out that federal lawmakers often use constituency funds for projects which are constitutionally the responsibility of state and local governments. He drew parallels with past practices where the CBN overextended itself into multiple sectors, leading to inefficiencies and inflationary pressures.

Effective Implementation Remains the Weak Link 

Most of the participants also pointed out that effective implementation limits the impact of many desirable reform initiatives. For example, Dr. Almona of LCCI noted that policies are often announced with strong intent, but execution, monitoring, and accountability remain weak. She emphasized that delayed implementation undermines the value of reforms and argued that initiatives meant to deliver results within a short timeframe often drag on for years without tangible outcomes. The consensus is that this is a major area that the government needs to improve upon.